Chart of the Week: Midterm Moves
With US midterm elections roughly a month away, investors are increasingly focused on the potential market impact. However, volatility typically reverses sharply, with equities rallying in the aftermath as uncertainty subsides. We believe that markets are likely to digest any electoral outcome and re-anchor to fundamentals, particularly under our base case of a divided government, which may limit major legislative policy changes.
Source: Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of October 6, 2026. Chart shows historical US equity market performance and volatility before and after midterm elections, averaging across the 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm elections. On the left-hand axis, US equity market performance is represented by S&P 500 returns, indexed to 100 24 weeks before the election, while volatility is represented by the change in the VIX index on the right-hand side. Past performance does not predict future returns and does not guarantee future results, which may vary. ‘We’ refers to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. For Illustrative Purposes Only. Please see additional disclosures at the end of this presentation.
Download the full document, which includes the chart of the week and insights on market developments. On pages 3 and 4, we further recap equity sector, size and style returns, global index returns, as well as rates and spread movements and a monthly snapshot of global equity valuations.
Equity investments are subject to market risk, which means that the value of the securities in which it invests may go up or down in response to the prospects of individual companies, particular sectors and/or general economic conditions. Different investment styles (e.g., “growth” and “value”) tend to shift in and out of favor, and, at times, the strategy may underperform other strategies that invest in similar asset classes. The market capitalization of a company may also involve greater risks (e.g. "small" or "mid" cap companies) than those associated with larger, more established companies and may be subject to more abrupt or erratic price movements, in addition to lower liquidity.
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