Asset Management Outlook 2024: Embracing New Realities
Welcome to a World of New Realities
We are pleased to share Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s 2024 Outlook: Embracing New Realities. As the new year approaches, a new economic landscape is taking shape. Major central banks seem prepared to keep interest rates higher for longer, and growth paths and inflation patterns across economies appear increasingly out of sync. An election super cycle is about to unfold against a backdrop of elevated geopolitical risk. Simultaneously, megatrends including disruptive technology and sustainability are rapidly transforming industries.
Embracing change is not easy. It requires resilience and action to avoid being left behind—even when finding the way forward is difficult. Most investors have adapted in recent years to rising geopolitical risks, soaring inflation and the disruptions caused by the pandemic. Further adjustments will be necessary in a world of greater growth volatility, higher capital costs and geopolitical instability. We expect increased performance dispersion across asset classes, sectors and regions. In these conditions, investors face complex choices and trade-offs.
We believe active investment strategies, a focus on diversification and risk management will be important to navigate 2024 and help deliver alpha. In our view, it will also be necessary to manage portfolios in an integrated way, enhancing diversification and performance potential by considering both traditional and alternative investments. Focusing on long-term disruption from sustainability trends and technological innovation, including artificial intelligence (AI), can help position portfolios for the global economic transformation.
In an age of unpredictability, dynamic insights and solutions will be needed to steer investment. We have synthesized views from across our investment teams and grouped our observations around five key themes that we expect to affect markets and investment strategies in 2024:
- Macroeconomy: Living with Higher for Longer
- Geopolitics: Roadmaps for a Reshaped World
- Disruptive Technology: Innovation and AI Acceleration
- Sustainability: Investing with Impact
- Portfolio Construction: Thinking Differently
We hope you find our insights helpful, and we look forward to working with you in 2024.
Marc Nachmann
Global Head of Asset & Wealth Management
Risk Considerations
All investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) strategies may take risks or eliminate exposures found in other strategies or broad market benchmarks that may cause performance to diverge from the performance of these other strategies or market benchmarks. ESG strategies will be subject to the risks associated with their underlying investments’ asset classes. Further, the demand within certain markets or sectors that an ESG strategy targets may not develop as forecasted or may develop more slowly than anticipated.
Equity investments are subject to market risk, which means that the value of the securities in which it invests may go up or down in response to the prospects of individual companies, particular sectors and/or general economic conditions. Different investment styles (e.g., “growth” and “value”) tend to shift in and out of favor, and, at times, the strategy may underperform other strategies that invest in similar asset classes. The market capitalization of a company may also involve greater risks (e.g. "small" or "mid" cap companies) than those associated with larger, more established companies and may be subject to more abrupt or erratic price movements, in addition to lower liquidity.
Private equity investments are speculative, highly illiquid, involve a high degree of risk, have high fees and expenses that could reduce returns, and subject to the possibility of partial or total loss of fund capital; they are, therefore, intended for experienced and sophisticated long-term investors who can accept such risks.
Investments in fixed income securities are subject to the risks associated with debt securities generally, including credit, liquidity, interest rate, prepayment and extension risk. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in the decline in the bond’s price. The value of securities with variable and floating interest rates are generally less sensitive to interest rate changes than securities with fixed interest rates. Variable and floating rate securities may decline in value if interest rates do not move as expected. Conversely, variable and floating rate securities will not generally rise in value if market interest rates decline. Credit risk is the risk that an issuer will default on payments of interest and principal. Credit risk is higher when investing in high yield bonds, also known as junk bonds. Prepayment risk is the risk that the issuer of a security may pay off principal more quickly than originally anticipated. Extension risk is the risk that the issuer of a security may pay off principal more slowly than originally anticipated. All fixed income investments may be worth less than their original cost upon redemption or maturity. High-yield, lower-rated securities involve greater price volatility and present greater credit risks than higher-rated fixed income securities.
International securities may be more volatile and less liquid and are subject to the risks of adverse economic or political developments. International securities are subject to greater risk of loss as a result of, but not limited to, the following: inadequate regulations, volatile securities markets, adverse exchange rates, and social, political, military, regulatory, economic or environmental developments, or natural disasters.
An investment in private credit and private equities is not suitable for all investors. Investors should carefully review and consider the potential investments, risks, chargers, and expenses of private equity before investing. They are speculative, highly illiquid, involve a high degree of risk, have high fees and expenses that could reduce returns, and subject to the possibility of partial or total loss of capital. They are, therefore, intended for experienced and sophisticated long-term investors who can accept such risks.
Alternative investments are suitable only for sophisticated investors for whom such investments do not constitute a complete investment program and who fully understand and are willing to assume the risks involved in Alternative Investments. Alternative Investments by their nature, involve a substantial degree of risk, including the risk of total loss of an investor’s capital.
Alternative Investments often engage in leverage and other investment practices that are extremely speculative and involve a high degree of risk. Such practices may increase the volatility of performance and the risk of investment loss, including the loss of the entire amount that is invested. There may be conflicts of interest relating to the Alternative Investment and its service providers, including Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Similarly, interests in an Alternative Investment are highly illiquid and generally are not transferable without the consent of the sponsor, and applicable securities and tax laws will limit transfers.
Investors should also consider some of the potential risks of alternative investments:
- Alternative Strategies. Alternative strategies often engage in leverage and other investment practices that are speculative and involve a high degree of risk. Such practices may increase the volatility of performance and the risk of investment loss, including the entire amount that is invested.
- Manager experience. Manager risk includes those that exist within a manager’s organization, investment process or supporting systems and infrastructure. There is also a potential for fund-level risks that arise from the way in which a manager constructs and manages the fund.
- Leverage. Leverage increases a fund’s sensitivity to market movements. Funds that use leverage can be expected to be more “volatile” than other funds that do not use leverage. This means if the investments a fund buys decrease in market value, the value of the fund’s shares will decrease by even more.
- Counter-party risk. Alternative strategies often make significant use of over- the- counter (OTC) derivatives and therefore are subject to the risk that counter-parties will not perform their obligations under such contracts.
- Liquidity risk. Alternatives strategies may make investments that are illiquid or that may become less liquid in response to market developments. At times, a fund may be unable to sell certain of its illiquid investments without a substantial drop in price, if at all.
- Valuation risk. There is risk that the values used by alternative strategies to price investments may be different from those used by other investors to price the same investments.
Alternative investments are suitable only for sophisticated investors for whom such investments do not constitute a complete investment program and who fully understand and are willing to assume the risks involved in Alternative Investments. Alternative Investments by their nature, involve a substantial degree of risk, including the risk of total loss of an investor’s capital.
Alternative Investments often engage in leverage and other investment practices that are extremely speculative and involve a high degree of risk. Such practices may increase the volatility of performance and the risk of investment loss, including the loss of the entire amount that is invested. There may be conflicts of interest relating to the Alternative Investment and its service providers, including Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Similarly, interests in an Alternative Investment are highly illiquid and generally are not transferable without the consent of the sponsor, and applicable securities and tax laws will limit transfers.
Alternative Investments - Hedge funds and other private investment funds (collectively, “Alternative Investments”) are subject to less regulation than other types of pooled investment vehicles such as mutual funds. Alternative Investments may impose significant fees, including incentive fees that are based upon a percentage of the realized and unrealized gains and an individual’s net returns may differ significantly from actual returns. Such fees may offset all or a significant portion of such Alternative Investment’s trading profits. Alternative Investments are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information. Investors may have limited rights with respect to their investments, including limited voting rights and participation in the management of such Alternative Investments.
The above are not an exhaustive list of potential risks. There may be additional risks that are not currently foreseen or considered.
Conflicts of Interest
There may be conflicts of interest relating to the Alternative Investment and its service providers, including Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. These activities and interests include potential multiple advisory, transactional and other interests in securities and instruments that may be purchased or sold by the Alternative Investment. These are considerations of which investors should be aware and additional information relating to these conflicts is set forth in the offering materials for the Alternative Investment.
General Disclosures
This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but does not imply low risk.
THIS MATERIAL DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION IN ANY JURISDICTION WHERE OR TO ANY PERSON TO WHOM IT WOULD BE UNAUTHORIZED OR UNLAWFUL TO DO SO.
Diversification does not protect an investor from market risk and does not ensure a profit.
There is no guarantee that objectives will be met.
Prospective investors should inform themselves as to any applicable legal requirements and taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile which might be relevant.
Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect a series of assumptions and judgments as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. These forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, these forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only.
This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. This material has been prepared by Goldman Sachs Asset Management and is not financial research nor a product of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR). It was not prepared in compliance with applicable provisions of law designed to promote the independence of financial analysis and is not subject to a prohibition on trading following the distribution of financial research. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. This information may not be current and Goldman Sachs Asset Management has no obligation to provide any updates or changes.
THESE MATERIALS ARE PROVIDED SOLELY ON THE BASIS THAT THEY WILL NOT CONSTITUTE INVESTMENT ADVICE AND WILL NOT FORM A PRIMARY BASIS FOR ANY PERSON’S OR PLAN’S INVESTMENT DECISIONS, AND GOLDMAN SACHS IS NOT A FIDUCIARY WITH RESPECT TO ANY PERSON OR PLAN BY REASON OF PROVIDING THE MATERIAL OR CONTENT HEREIN. PLAN FIDUCIARIES SHOULD CONSIDER THEIR OWN CIRCUMSTANCES IN ASSESSING ANY POTENTIAL INVESTMENT COURSE OF ACTION.
The views expressed herein are as of the date of the material and subject to change in the future. Individual portfolio management teams for Goldman Sachs Asset Management may have views and opinions and/or make investment decisions that, in certain instances, may not always be consistent with the views and opinions expressed herein.
Views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation by Goldman Sachs Asset Management to buy, sell, or hold any security. Views and opinions are current as of the date of this material and may be subject to change, they should not be construed as investment advice.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. This material is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.
Although certain information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. We have relied upon and assumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources.
Any reference to a specific company or security does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or directly invest in the company or its securities. Nothing in this document should be construed to constitute allocation advice or recommendations.
The opinions expressed in this white paper are those of the authors, and not necessarily of Goldman Sachs. Any investments or returns discussed in this paper do not represent any Goldman Sachs product. This white paper makes no implied or express recommendations concerning how a client’s account should be managed. This white paper is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing or as a source of any specific investment recommendations.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down as well as up. A loss of principal may occur.
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