European Pension Survey
Insights from European Pension Funds
Europe’s defined benefit pension funds have cause for optimism in 2024. They emerged from the economic challenges of the past two years with improved funding levels, providing greater leeway as they plan for the future. The investment climate remains uncertain, with higher-for-longer rates and slower growth expected in most advanced economies, but opportunities abound in public and private markets for investors with a diversified and risk-conscious approach.
Our European Pension Fund Survey captures the views of defined benefit pension experts at this pivotal moment on key issues from the potential risks posed by geopolitical tensions and the 2024 election super cycle to the attractiveness of investment opportunities in core fixed income and private credit. The survey demonstrates the importance of sustainable investing for many pension funds and looks at their plans for outsourcing portfolio management.
Glossary
EMEA stands for Europe, Middle East and Africa.
Duration risk is the risk that changes in interest rates will either increase or decrease the market value of a fixed-income investment.
Net Zero refers to cutting greenhouse gas emissions to as close to zero as possible with any remaining emissions re-absorbed from the atmosphere. (United Nations).
Risk-on (risk-off) environment refers to a positive (negative) investment sentiment toward market conditions, leading investors to have a greater (smaller) appetite for investing in risky assets.
Risk Disclosures
An investment in private equities is not suitable for all investors. Investors should carefully review and consider the potential investments, risks, chargers, and expenses of private equity before investing. Private equity investments are speculative, highly illiquid, involve a high degree of risk, have high fees and expenses that could reduce returns, and subject to the possibility of partial or total loss of capital. They are, therefore, intended for experienced and sophisticated long-term investors who can accept such risks.
Equity investments are subject to market risk, which means that the value of the securities in which it invests may go up or down in response to the prospects of individual companies, particular sectors and/or general economic conditions. Different investment styles (e.g., “growth” and “value”) tend to shift in and out of favor, and, at times, the strategy may underperform other strategies that invest in similar asset classes. The market capitalization of a company may also involve greater risks (e.g. "small" or "mid" cap companies) than those associated with larger, more established companies and may be subject to more abrupt or erratic price movements, in addition to lower liquidity.
Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) strategies may take risks or eliminate exposures found in other strategies or broad market benchmarks that may cause performance to diverge from the performance of these other strategies or market benchmarks. ESG strategies will be subject to the risks associated with their underlying investments’ asset classes. Further, the demand within certain markets or sectors that an ESG strategy targets may not develop as forecasted or may develop more slowly than anticipated.
Investments in fixed income securities are subject to the risks associated with debt securities generally, including credit, liquidity, interest rate, prepayment and extension risk. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in the decline in the bond’s price. The value of securities with variable and floating interest rates are generally less sensitive to interest rate changes than securities with fixed interest rates. Variable and floating rate securities may decline in value if interest rates do not move as expected. Conversely, variable and floating rate securities will not generally rise in value if market interest rates decline. Credit risk is the risk that an issuer will default on payments of interest and principal. Credit risk is higher when investing in high yield bonds, also known as junk bonds. Prepayment risk is the risk that the issuer of a security may pay off principal more quickly than originally anticipated. Extension risk is the risk that the issuer of a security may pay off principal more slowly than originally anticipated. All fixed income investments may be worth less than their original cost upon redemption or maturity.
Investing in high-yield securities can be complex and involves a variety of risks and benefits. Non-investment grade fixed income securities and unrated securities of comparable credit quality (commonly known as “junk bonds”) are considered speculative and are subject to the increased risk of an issuer’s inability to meet principal and interest payment obligations. These securities may be subject to greater price volatility due to such factors as specific issuer developments, interest rate sensitivity, negative perceptions of the junk bond markets generally and less liquidity.
Disclosures
Views expressed discussed are those of survey respondents, compiled by Goldman Sachs Asset Management as of December 28, 2023. Responses were collected from November 30, 2023, to December 28, 2023.
This material is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
Views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation by Goldman Sachs Asset Management to buy, sell, or hold any security. Views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation and may be subject to change, they should not be construed as investment advice.
Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect a series of assumptions and judgments as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. These forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, these forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts.
Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only.
This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. This material has been prepared by Goldman Sachs Asset Management and is not financial research nor a product of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR). It was not prepared in compliance with applicable provisions of law designed to promote the independence of financial analysis and is not subject to a prohibition on trading following the distribution of financial research. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates.
Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. This information may not be current and Goldman Sachs Asset Management has no obligation to provide any updates or changes.
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Goldman Sachs Asset Management does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and therefore expresses no view as to the legal, tax or accounting treatment of the information described herein or any related transaction, nor are we providing any assurance as to the adequacy or appropriateness of this information or our procedures for your purposes. This material is not a substitute for the professional advice or services of your own financial, tax, accounting and legal advisors.
Environmental, Social, and Governance (“ESG”) strategies may take risks or eliminate exposures found in other strategies or broad market benchmarks that may cause performance to diverge from the performance of these other strategies or market benchmarks. ESG strategies will be subject to the risks associated with their underlying investments’ asset classes. Further, the demand within certain markets or sectors that an ESG strategy targets may not develop as forecasted or may develop more slowly than anticipated.
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