Chart of the Week: Hawkish Hike
Fed officials have adopted an increasingly hawkish stance, even compared to just a few months ago, driven by limited disinflationary progress after years of above-target inflation. The dot plot from last week’s meeting suggests that Fed officials expect one more rate hike this year, with the median projection rising to 4.1% from 3.8% in June. We still do not expect a sustained hiking cycle, as we believe that tariff and energy-related price pressures may fade, the economy shows little sign of overheating, and inflation expectations remain anchored.
Source: Federal Reserve and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of September 16, 2026. Chart shows the Fed’s dot plot for 2026 from the June and September FOMC meetings, where each dot represents an FOMC member’s projection for the midpoint of the target range for the federal funds rate. The light blue dots refer to the median projections. ‘We’ refers to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. For Illustrative Purposes Only. The economic and market forecasts presented herein are for informational purposes as of the date of this presentation. There can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Please see additional disclosures at the end of this presentation.
Download the full document, which includes the chart of the week and insights on market developments. On pages 3 and 4, we further recap equity sector, size and style returns, global index returns, as well as rates and spread movements and a monthly snapshot of global equity valuations.
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