Market Pulse November
Macro Views
The 2024 US elections outcome revealed Donald Trump winning the presidency and an increasing likelihood of Republican control over Congress. While this sets the stage for policy shifts over the next few years, thin leadership margins and ideological partisanship continue to pose challenges for the legislative process.
In the US, Donald Trump is likely to proceed with his proposed tax cuts and deregulation, potentially resulting in a positive fiscal impulse to GDP. Trump’s tariff proposals may also be implemented, creating inflationary risks domestically and growth risks elsewhere. Europe and China seem most vulnerable due to their sensitivity to global trade. That said, a trade retaliation from US trading partners could affect global growth negatively, including a slight drag to GDP in the US.
Looser fiscal policy, higher tariffs and deregulation may lead to higher inflationary pressures in the short term which could push for slower policy normalization from the Fed. In Europe, increased trade policy uncertainty could accelerate the ECB’s cutting timeline as trade disruptions could weigh on Euro area growth, in our view.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research estimates the effective tariff rate on US imports from China would rise by around 20% in aggregate. We believe Chinese authorities are likely to use policy space to offset growth drags. This can be done via higher fiscal easing to boost domestic demand and absorb manufacturing goods which would have otherwise been exported. GIR anticipates fiscal and monetary support to bring real GDP growth to 4.7% in 2025.
Source: Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of October 29, 2024. Chart shows the performance of the S&P500 during the years with Republican sweeps compared to the S&P500 unconditional average. Past performance does not predict future returns and does not guarantee future results, which may vary.
Market Views
A strong corporate earnings outlook, more monetary policy easing ahead, and potential for lower corporate tax rates point to further upside for US equities. This pro-growth backdrop could also lead to small-caps and cyclical industries to outperform, in our view. Furthermore, we believe stocks with higher domestic revenue and less global supply chain exposure could be less impacted by the risks of higher tariffs.
We expect European equities to underperform given increased trade uncertainty with regards to tariffs and current structural and earnings challenges in the region. More broadly, this could lead to additional measures of protectionism and repositioning of the supply chain and production. In EM, Chinese equities seem to be the most vulnerable, while equities in India appear the most insulated against potential US tariff risks.
We believe that long-term Treasury yields could rise and the yield curve could steepen with the expected fiscal expansion. Inflationary pressures and increased Treasury supply from a rising deficit may push rates higher, especially at the long end, and geopolitical risks may add to rate volatility. However, tariffs may flatten the curve if they are seen as negative for productivity and growth.
Higher tariffs could strengthen the US dollar further as currencies adjust to reflect changing Terms of Trade and diverging monetary policy impulses as a result of diverging inflation and growth dynamics. The Chinese yuan and euro could be the most impacted currencies given their exposure to US trade, by contrast the Japanese yen might still appreciate given the prospect for additional rate hikes from the BoJ.
Price targets of major asset classes are provided by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: “European equities & the US election” – November 8, 2024."
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of November 2024. “We/Our” refers to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The macro and market views expressed may differ from those of GIR and other divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. See the end for additional disclosures. The economic and market forecasts presented herein are for informational purposes as of the date of this document. There can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary.
Beyond the Ballot
The winner of the 2024 US election has officially been determined, providing more clarity about the future policy mix. That said, uncertainty around the timing and implementation of the political agenda may continue in the short term. In our view, industrial protectionism is likely to persist, fiscal policy will remain expansionary, and the structural deficit is unlikely to be addressed. While market volatility may stay elevated as policy shifts, we see opportunities in staying invested through this political transition.
Source: United States Census Bureau and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of October 31, 2024
Source: Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of As of October 31, 2024
Source: United States CBO and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of October 31, 2024
“We/Our” refers to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “Supply Chain Reconfiguration” Section Notes: Source: United States Census Bureau and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of October 31, 2024. Chart shows the percent change in share of US total imports in percentage points from 2017 to 2024 year-to-date. It highlights the current supply chain reconfiguration happening globally as the world is facing fragmentation. “Small Caps Back in Action” Section Notes: Source: Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of October 31, 2024. Chart shows the 12-month forward return following US presidential elections in percentages, highlighting that small-cap companies could act as election edges due to their domestically-focused business models and floating rate debt levels. “Treasury Market Considerations” Section notes: Source: United States CBO and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of October 31, 2024. Chart shows the percentage of GDP in percentages and shows that the US deficit, mostly driven by net interest outlays, has been growing and is projected to growth even more by 2034 according to the CBO projections. The economic and market forecasts presented herein are for informational purposes as of the date of this document. There is no guarantee that objectives will be met. There can be no assurance that forecasts will be achieved. Please see additional disclosures at the end. Past performance does not predict future returns and does not guarantee future results, which may vary.
The macro and market views expressed may differ from those of GIR and other divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. See end for additional disclosures.