Asset Management Outlook 2025: Reasons to Recalibrate
We are pleased to share Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s 2025 Outlook: Reasons to Recalibrate.
Investors face a range of new dynamics in 2025. Inflation has continued to slow, economies remain resilient and interest rate cuts are underway. We expect the magnitude and pace of monetary policy easing to be in focus throughout the year. In our view, the direction of travel toward more accommodative monetary policy will create new opportunities across public and private markets, but in an environment that is no less complex.
While macroeconomic imbalances have receded, the aftereffects of a mega-election year globally and a second Trump presidential term in the US add new uncertainties around inflation, growth, and international trade. Investors must also navigate the evolving intersections of geopolitics, supply chain shifts, and the rise of artificial intelligence.
A dynamic environment provides reasons for investors to recalibrate their portfolios, and we see several potential ways to do so. In our outlook, we have synthesized our views into five key themes and the investment opportunities they could create.
We are grateful for the opportunity to share our insights and we look forward to working with you in 2025.
Marc Nachmann
Global Head of Asset & Wealth Management
We expect rate cuts to progress in 2025 across most developed and emerging markets with divergence in their pace and timing. We remain optimistic that major economies can achieve sustained economic growth as interest rates ease, although the range of potential macroeconomic outcomes has widened following the US elections.
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Rate cuts favor fixed income. We believe asset allocation decisions that land on bonds may prove rewarding in 2025. We see opportunities to ride the easing cycle, capture income across corporate and securitized credit, and use a dynamic investment approach across sectors and regions.
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We expect the return structure of the stock market to broaden in 2025 against a backdrop of easing cycles and resilient growth. High valuations in some areas provide motivation for diversification. We see potentially undervalued long-term opportunities in the US, internationally and across the market cap spectrum.
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As economies adjust, private markets and other alternative assets continue to evolve and attract a broader base of investors seeking to complement their traditional market exposures. We see a diverse opportunity set across private equity, private credit, real estate, infrastructure and hedge funds.
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This is an era of disruption. Geopolitics, supply chain shifts and the rise of AI will remain prominent themes. We believe mapping their long-term implications, identifying opportunities at their intersection, and strategically allocating capital across public and private markets can drive positive financial and real-world impact.
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Equity investments are subject to market risk, which means that the value of the securities in which it invests may go up or down in response to the prospects of individual companies, particular sectors and/or general economic conditions. Different investment styles (e.g., “growth” and “value”) tend to shift in and out of favor, and, at times, the strategy may underperform other strategies that invest in similar asset classes. The market capitalization of a company may also involve greater risks (e.g. "small" or "mid" cap companies) than those associated with larger, more established companies and may be subject to more abrupt or erratic price movements, in addition to lower liquidity.
Investments in fixed income securities are subject to the risks associated with debt securities generally, including credit, liquidity, interest rate, prepayment and extension risk. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in the decline in the bond’s price. The value of securities with variable and floating interest rates are generally less sensitive to interest rate changes than securities with fixed interest rates. Variable and floating rate securities may decline in value if interest rates do not move as expected. Conversely, variable and floating rate securities will not generally rise in value if market interest rates decline. Credit risk is the risk that an issuer will default on payments of interest and principal. Credit risk is higher when investing in high yield bonds, also known as junk bonds. Prepayment risk is the risk that the issuer of a security may pay off principal more quickly than originally anticipated. Extension risk is the risk that the issuer of a security may pay off principal more slowly than originally anticipated. All fixed income investments may be worth less than their original cost upon redemption or maturity.
Infrastructure investments are susceptible to various factors that may negatively impact their businesses or operations, including regulatory compliance, rising interest costs in connection with capital construction, governmental constraints that impact publicly funded projects, the effects of general economic conditions, increased competition, commodity costs, energy policies, unfavorable tax laws or accounting policies and high leverage.
Emerging markets investments may be less liquid and are subject to greater risk than developed market investments as a result of, but not limited to, the following: inadequate regulations, volatile securities markets, adverse exchange rates, and social, political, military, regulatory, economic or environmental developments, or natural disasters.
Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) strategies may take risks or eliminate exposures found in other strategies or broad market benchmarks that may cause performance to diverge from the performance of these other strategies or market benchmarks. ESG strategies will be subject to the risks associated with their underlying investments’ asset classes. Further, the demand within certain markets or sectors that an ESG strategy targets may not develop as forecasted or may develop more slowly than anticipated. Any ESG characteristics, views, assessments, claims or similar referenced herein (i) will be based on, and limited to, the consideration of specific ESG attributes or metrics related to a product, issuer or service and not their broader or full ESG profile, and unless stated otherwise, (ii) may be limited to a point of time assessment and may not consider the broader lifecycle of the product, issuer or service, and (iii) may not consider any potential negative ESG impacts arising from or related to the product, issuer or service.
An investment in private credit and private equities is not suitable for all investors. Investors should carefully review and consider the potential investments, risks, charges, and expenses of private equity before investing. They are speculative, highly illiquid, involve a high degree of risk, have high fees and expenses that could reduce returns, and subject to the possibility of partial or total loss of capital. They are, therefore, intended for experienced and sophisticated long-term investors who can accept such risks.
Private equity and private credit investments are speculative, highly illiquid, involve a high degree of risk, have high fees and expenses that could reduce returns, and subject to the possibility of partial or total loss of fund capital; they are, therefore, intended for experienced and sophisticated long-term investors who can accept such risks.
Exchange-Traded Funds are subject to risks similar to those of stocks. Investment returns may fluctuate and are subject to market volatility, so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, or sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. ETFs may yield investment results that, before expenses, generally correspond to the price and yield of a particular index. There is no assurance that the price and yield performance of the index can be fully matched.
Hedge funds and other private investment funds (collectively, “Alternative Investments”) are subject to less regulation than other types of pooled investment vehicles such as mutual funds. Alternative Investments may impose significant fees, including incentive fees that are based upon a percentage of the realized and unrealized gains and an individual’s net returns may differ significantly from actual returns. Such fees may offset all or a significant portion of such Alternative Investment’s trading profits. Alternative Investments are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information. Investors may have limited rights with respect to their investments, including limited voting rights and participation in the management of such Alternative Investments.
Alternative Investments often engage in leverage and other investment practices that are extremely speculative and involve a high degree of risk. Such practices may increase the volatility of performance and the risk of investment loss, including the loss of the entire amount that is invested. There may be conflicts of interest relating to the Alternative Investment and its service providers, including Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Similarly, interests in an Alternative Investment are highly illiquid and generally are not transferable without the consent of the sponsor, and applicable securities and tax laws will limit transfers.
Conflicts of Interest
There may be conflicts of interest relating to the Alternative Investment and its service providers, including Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. These activities and interests include potential multiple advisory, transactional and other interests in securities and instruments that may be purchased or sold by the Alternative Investment. These are considerations of which investors should be aware and additional information relating to these conflicts is set forth in the offering materials for the Alternative Investment.
Real estate investments are speculative and illiquid, involve a high degree of risk and have high fees and expenses that could reduce returns. These risks include, but are not limited to, fluctuations in the real estate markets, the financial conditions of tenants, changes in building, environmental, zoning and other laws, changes in real property tax rates or the assessed values of Partnership Investments, changes in interest rates and the availability or terms of debt financing, changes in operating costs, risks due to dependence on cash flow, environmental liabilities, uninsured casualties, unavailability of or increased cost of certain types of insurance coverage, fluctuations in energy prices, and other factors not within the control of the General Partner, such as an outbreak or escalation of major hostilities, declarations of war, terrorist actions or other substantial national or international calamities or emergencies. The possibility of partial or total loss of an investment vehicle’s capital exists, and prospective investors should not invest unless they can readily bear the consequences of such loss.
Further, some real estate investments may require development or redevelopment, which carries additional risks relating to the availability and timely receipt of zoning and other regulatory approvals, the cost and timely completion of construction, and the availability of permanent financing on favorable terms.
Real estate investments will be highly illiquid and will not have market quotations. As a result, the valuation of real estate investments involves uncertainty and may be based on assumptions. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that the appraised value of a real estate investment will be accurate or further, that the appraised value would in fact be realized on the eventual disposition of such investment.
In addition, real estate assets may be highly leveraged, which leverage could have significant adverse consequences to the assets and therefore an investment vehicle. In particular, an investment vehicle will lose its investment in a leveraged asset more quickly than a non-leveraged asset if the asset declines in value. You should understand fully the risks associated with the use of leverage before making an investment in a real estate investment vehicle.
Diversification does not protect an investor from market risk and does not ensure a profit.
Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect a series of assumptions and judgments as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. These forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, these forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only.
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Index Benchmarks
Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends, as applicable, but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices.
The indices referenced herein have been selected because they are well known, easily recognized by investors, and reflect those indices that the Investment Manager believes, in part based on industry practice, provide a suitable benchmark against which to evaluate the investment or broader market described herein. The exclusion of “failed” or closed hedge funds may mean that each index overstates the performance of hedge funds generally.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down as well as up. A loss of principal may occur.
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