Macroeconomics

Weekly Market Monitor

September 5, 2025 | 3 minute read
Stay connected with our Weekly Market Monitor, featuring a thematic chart, key market developments, and valuable investment insights across asset classes each week.

Chart of the Week: Rate Cuts and Equity Rallies

Since 1990, there have been nine instances when the Federal Reserve has cut rates while the S&P 500 was at or within 1% of an all-time high. While forward returns have been mixed, depending on the broader economic backdrop, they have typically been positive. After a year, the median return has been roughly equal for cuts at all-time highs and cuts at any point in time during this period (8% vs 9%). We believe that the bar for US equities to continue delivering strong returns is undoubtedly high, but Fed easing and still-resilient economic conditions may support valuations and earnings growth in the near term, giving fresh legs to the rally. 

Chart of the Week

Source: GS GIR and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of August 22, 2025. Chart shows median S&P 500 price returns following cuts at or near all-time highs versus unconditional returns following cuts over 3, 6, and 12 months. At or near all-time highs refers to cuts at or within 1% of an all-time high. Unconditional refers to cuts at any point in time over this period. Rate cuts near all-time highs include July 13, 1990; March 8, 1991; October 31, 1991; July 6, 1995; January 31, 1996; September 19, 2019; October 31, 2019; September 19, 2024; November 8, 2024.12-month forward returns do not account for any rate cut on or after September 2024, as the data is not available yet. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. For Illustrative Purposes Only. 

Download the full document, which includes the chart of the week and insights on market developments. On pages 3 and 4, we further recap equity sector, size and style returns, global index returns, as well as rates and spread movements and a monthly snapshot of global equity valuations.

Weekly Market Monitor
The Market Monitor features a thematic chart and highlights key economic events and data releases driving the past week’s market moves.
weekly market monitor
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