Macroeconomics

Weekly Market Monitor

August 8, 2025 | 3 minute read
Stay connected with our Weekly Market Monitor, featuring a thematic chart, key market developments, and valuable investment insights across asset classes each week.

Chart of the Week: Cracks in the Labor Market

The Fed has remained on hold since last year, weighing uncertainty about the inflationary effects of tariffs against a healthy, albeit softening, labor market. We are now starting to see signs of labor market weakness: nonfarm payrolls rose by 73k in July, below consensus expectations of 106k, while the May and June numbers were revised down by a combined 258k. This pace of job growth is below GIR’s estimates of the rate needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate, which is currently 90k. If job growth remains below breakeven rates, the cracks in the labor market will likely widen, which could lead to a faster and deeper easing cycle. 

Chart of the Week

Source: GS Asset Management and GS GIR. As of August 1, 2025. Chart shows monthly nonfarm job growth in thousands of jobs, along with GIR’s estimate of the current breakeven rate of job growth. For illustrative purposes only. 'We' refers to Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Download the full document, which includes the chart of the week and insights on market developments. On pages 3 and 4, we further recap equity sector, size and style returns, global index returns, as well as rates and spread movements and a monthly snapshot of global equity valuations.

Weekly Market Monitor
The Market Monitor features a thematic chart and highlights key economic events and data releases driving the past week’s market moves.
weekly market monitor
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