Market Pulse August

Trade policy continues to pose the greatest headwind to global growth in 2H 2025 as our research colleagues expect the US effective tariff rate will rise from 12% at the end of July to 17% by year-end. In the US, strong private sector balance sheets are weighed against stalling real consumption and slowing job creation. In Europe, we are cautiously optimistic due to the fiscal pickup in Germany and continued strength in Spain.

US prices are beginning to show evidence (~20bp) of a tariff impact that we think will continue to firm in the coming months, even as underlying inflation trends back towards 2%. Meanwhile the tariff effect globally may reinforce disinflationary trends as lower demand and excess supply keep prices subdued.

As the Federal Reserve balances near-term labor market concerns with anticipated price increases, we think the FOMC will cut rates in September and resume the path of policy normalization to a terminal rate of 3.0-3.25% in 2026. The ECB may hold at 2% in September, while we expect the BoE will continue a quarterly easing pace through March 2026 – potentially further and faster than the market is pricing.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of August 1, 2025. Chart shows S&P 500 quarterly year over year (YoY) earnings per share (EPS) growth relative to consensus expectations.
The above content is sourced from Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, and MSCI. As of July 30, 2025. “We/Our” refers to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The macro and market views expressed may differ from those of GIR and other divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. See page 3 for additional disclosures. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The economic and market forecasts presented herein are for informational purposes as of the date of this document. There can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Past performance does not predict future returns and does not guarantee future results, which may vary.

Coming into 2Q earnings season, consensus estimated S&P 500 EPS growth would decelerate to 4% YoY as tariff policy weighed on sales, margins, and investment spending. So far, US companies are on track to beat this low bar and we expect resilient earnings growth will continue to support equity prices. Globally, investors have looked through mixed reports ex-US and are focusing on the strong outlook for earnings growth in 2026.

Solid fundamentals continue to support income potential, particularly in securitized and high-yield (HY) sectors, though selectivity is key given tight spreads. Supportive market dynamics have also been a tailwind to HY as the market has shrunk due to rating upgrades and bond issuance migrating to private markets.

We see continued dollar downside after the greenback came into the year roughly 20% overvalued, though the path forward may be more nuanced. Regional asset allocation may exert more gradual downward pressure on the dollar, while its position as the world’s reserve currency still supports its status as a safe-haven asset during risk-off events originating outside the US.

Source: Price targets of major asset classes are provided by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: “Trading the trade deal and earnings.” As of August 1, 2025.
The above content is sourced from Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, and MSCI. As of July 30, 2025. “We/Our” refers to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The macro and market views expressed may differ from those of GIR and other divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. See page 3 for additional disclosures. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The economic and market forecasts presented herein are for informational purposes as of the date of this document. There can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Past performance does not predict future returns and does not guarantee future results, which may vary.
AI on the Rise
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to be transformative to the economy, to markets, and to businesses. From a macro perspective, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research sees AI boosting labor productivity by 15% over the next 10 years and adding $7 trillion to global GDP. Roughly two-thirds of US jobs could be complemented by AI, creating opportunities for up-skilling and more human-generated value creation. As AI evolves and expands, we see opportunities across market capitalizations and in both public and private investments. Still, we are cognizant that technological disruption can create winners and losers.

Source: Yahoo Finance and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of June 30, 2025. Chart shows the number of months it took popular apps to reach 100 million active users.
The technology adoption curve has gotten steeper in recent decades, and it took ChatGPT just two months to hit 100 million active users. Since then, several generative AI competitors have come to market. As the industry develops and disruption continues, we think there will be opportunities for multiple market leaders – particularly those that can differentiate on efficiency (price, power, compute) and expertise (sector, subject matter, etc.).

Source: Census Bureau and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of June 30, 2025. Chart shows the number of US firms reporting that they use artificial intelligence in their business.
While consumer adoption has been rapid, corporate use of AI still has significant upside potential as technology advances. For example, agentic AI goes beyond chatbots to autonomous agents capable of performing complex tasks. We believe it has the potential to transform industries, from coding and finance to healthcare and manufacturing, by streamlining processes and boosting efficiency. At the same time, it offers new revenue streams for AI-exposed companies.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research and Asset Management. As of July 30, 2025. Chart shows the price performance of the four phases of AI adoption.
As AI evolves, we expect the opportunity set to expand from the makers (Phase 1), to the infrastructure required to make it work, the companies that can use it to generate new revenue, and ultimately the broad market that stands to benefit from enhanced productivity. At an asset class level, we think infrastructure will be critical as data centers and power grids are built out to support mass adoption. Investors may also find beneficiaries in small caps deploying AI agents, as well as in the large cap hyperscalers.
“We/Our” refers to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The economic and market forecasts presented herein are for informational purposes as of the date of this document. There is no guarantee that objectives will be met. There can be no assurance that forecasts will be achieved. Diversification does not protect an investor from market risk and does not ensure a profit. Please see additional disclosures at the end of this document. Past performance does not predict future returns and does not guarantee future results, which may vary.

