Fixed Income

Municipal Fixed Income Monthly

May 8, 2025 | 5 minute read
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Scott Diamond
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
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Sylvia Yeh
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
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David Alter
Head of Credit Research, Municipal Fixed Income

Tariff Tested: Munis Resilient Amidst Outflows

Market Overview: One Topic Dominated

On April 2nd, the current U.S. administration announced higher-than-expected reciprocal tariffs on most of its trading partners. The 90-day pause on tariffs announced a week later brought some relief, but global markets remained on edge for the remainder of April. The initial tariff announcement triggered notable volatility in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. A "risk-off" sentiment initially drove the UST 10-year yield down by 15 basis points (bps), however, investor anxieties about inflation and fiscal policy fueled a subsequent 50bps increase in yields.

During the second week of April, AAA municipal yields rose 100bps in a matter of days and then retraced half that move in one day. Municipals proceeded to have their worst day in terms of total return in at least 30 years followed by their best day in 30 years. A combination of heavy supply, tax-season related selling, record outflows, lower re-investment volume, and ongoing scrutiny of its tax-exempt status all contributed to the significant pressure on the municipal market.

Yields & Valuations: Higher and Cheaper 

Muni yields were higher by 22bps on average across the curve and the muni yield curve flattened by 13bps, with the difference between 1yr and 30yr maturity munis at 154bps at month-end. Muni/UST ratios were higher across the yield curve as municipals underperformed. 2-5yr ratios rose 9-13 ratios, while longer maturity ratios were higher by 2-5 ratios. Muni/UST ratios ended April at 81/80/94% respectively for 5/10/30 years.

Municipal Yield Curve: Higher YieldsMunicipal Yield Curve: Higher Yields

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of April 30, 2025.

Valuations: UnderperformanceValuations: Underperformance

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of April 30, 2025.

Muni Index Performance: Negative Returns

The Bloomberg Muni Index returned -0.81% in April, while the Bloomberg Muni High Yield Index returned -1.78%. Bonds with the shortest maturities exhibited the most favorable relative returns, whereas those with maturities of 22 years and longer underperformed. Within the investment grade rating categories, high-rated credits (AAA-AA) outperformed lower-rated credits (A-BBB).

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of April 30, 2025.

Credit Research Spotlight

  • Federal policy changes continued to make headlines in April, with the escalating fight between the Trump Administration and Harvard raising concerns about the potential loss of tax exemption.
  • This is in addition to federal funding that has been put into question across many universities. We view the loss of tax-exempt status as unlikely but are continuing to monitor the situation.
  • Increasing tariffs could also impact municipal credit but have not been finalized at this time. The most direct impact would be on marine ports and large construction projects.
Musings about Munis
Supply/Demand
Supply/Demand

Market expectations are for supply to hit close to record levels this year. Demand will likely remain positive particularly if yields continue to be elevated and are above short-term instruments on a tax equivalent yield basis.

Valuations
Valuations

Most maturities along the yield curve are at their average valuation range versus recent history. Attractive absolute yields and stable credit fundamentals should continue to support munis trading at the tighter end of historical valuations.

Credit and Spreads
Credit and Spreads

Boosted by healthy reserve balances, investment grade issuers remain on solid footing. This strong starting point may provide a needed cushion given a normalization in both revenues and federal aid. Credit spreads are fair after significant outperformance versus high grades and investors should be ready to opportunistically add risk.

Supply: Temporary Pause, then Full Steam Ahead

April new issue supply amounted to $41 billion ($37 billion tax-exempt and $4 billion taxable), one of the largest on record for the month of April. YTD new issue volumes are up 9% and driven by issuance for new projects. Uncertainty stemming from tariffs and subsequent yield volatility led issuers to delay their planned bond offerings during the most turbulent period of the month. However, once yield stability returned, issuance volumes surged, culminating in the highest weekly volume of the year.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The Bond Buyer, Barclays. As of April 30, 2025

Demand: Negative Flows

The market experienced extreme volatility, highlighted by a single week's outflow of $3.3 billion ― the largest outflow recorded in over two years. That week also marked the highest level of outflows ever recorded for municipal ETFs.

Despite the overall volatility, April concluded positively with inflows of $1.6 billion during the final week. YTD inflows have totaled $6.7 billion, with most of those inflows having gone into ETFs.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Refinitiv. April 30, 2025

Spreads: Slightly Wider, but Resilient

BBB spreads widened, or increased, by 8bps and ended the month at 94bps. While high yield muni spreads increased by 3bps to close at 177bps.  The education sector had the best relative returns for the month versus Puerto Rico and tobacco credits which underperformed. In the face of market volatility and uncertainty, lower-rated municipal bonds outperformed their corporate counterparts, exhibiting less spread widening and lower volatility.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Bloomberg. April 30, 2025

Author(s)
Avatar
Scott Diamond
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
Avatar
Sylvia Yeh
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
Avatar
David Alter
Head of Credit Research, Municipal Fixed Income
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