Fixed Income

Municipal Fixed Income Monthly

May 13, 2026 | 5 minute read
muni-fi-monthly-jan-25_16-9_1360x765.png
Fixed Income

Municipal Fixed Income Monthly

May 13, 2026 | 5 minute read
muni-fi-monthly-jan-25_21-9_1840x788.png
Fixed Income

Municipal Fixed Income Monthly

May 13, 2026 | 5 minute read
muni-fi-monthly-jan-25_3-1_2480x827.png
Author(s)
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Scott Diamond
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
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Sylvia Yeh
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
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David Alter
Head of Credit Research, Municipal Fixed Income

Solid Technicals Lead to Rebound Month for Munis

Munis outperformed Treasuries despite global tensions and Fed rate dissent. As the Fed balances a softening labor market with inflation, the muni market faces record supply and rising credit headlines, highlighting the potential need for active management in 2026.

Market Overview

The municipal bond (muni) market outperformed the Treasury market in April, with muni yields rallying and Treasury yields selling off over the course of the month. In Jerome Powell’s last meeting as chair, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the FOMC had its deepest policy split since 1992 on the back of an increase in global energy prices.  Fear of re-escalation in the Middle East drove the Treasury selloff in April. The muni market was supported by solid inflows and manageable supply amid tax season selling, driving muni outperformance relative to the Treasury market.

Yields & Valuations

Muni yields fell an average of 8 basis points (bps) in April. The difference between 1-year and 30-year muni yields flattened 19 bps to 187 bps. Muni/US Treasury ratios richened by 3/4/4%, ending April at 63/67/87% respectively for 5/10/30 years.

Municipal Yield CurveLine chart showing municipal bond yields to worst across maturities from 1 to 30 years, comparing April 2026 versus March 2026.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg.  As of April 30, 2026.

ValuationsTable showing AAA municipal yields, US Treasury yields, quarterly yield changes, and muni-to-Treasury ratios across 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year maturities as of April 30, 2026.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of April 30, 2026.

Muni Index Performance

The Bloomberg Muni Index returned 1.15% in April, while the Bloomberg Muni High Yield Index increased by 1.36%. All credit ratings (AAA–BBB) saw positive performance within investment grade munis.

Bar chart showing monthly and year-to-date total returns for key municipal bond indices as of April 30, 2026.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of April 30, 2026.

Credit Research Spotlight

The California billionaire tax proposal has advanced toward the November ballot after exceeding signature requirements and if passed by voters, would impose a one-time 5% wealth tax on a small number of ultra-high-net-worth residents.

While the measure could generate meaningful one-time revenue, the longer-term fiscal impact remains uncertain given potential out-migration and California’s reliance on high-income taxpayers.

From a credit perspective, the proposal faces strong political opposition and likely legal challenges, and we do not view it as a near-term driver of material credit deterioration for the state.

Muni Musings
Supply/Demand
Supply/Demand

Second-quarter supply should remain elevated given continued infrastructure needs. We expect demand to improve as the quarter progresses due to strong June/July reinvestment.

Valuations and Spreads
Valuations and Spreads

Ratios are tighter but investors may find pockets of opportunity on continued rate volatility from Middle East tensions. With credit spreads trending tighter, rigorous selection will potentially play a key role in driving returns.  

Credit
Credit

We continue to expect an increase in headline-driven volatility; however, the combination of a resilient underlying economy and healthy reserve balances puts municipalities in a strong position to navigate the path forward.

Supply: Steady

April new issue supply amounted to $47 billion ($40 billion tax-exempt and $7 billion taxable). This was 7% lower than April 2025 volumes and 10% lower than last month. Year to date, new issue volumes are up 4% versus last year.

Weekly new issuance volumes in April ranged from $10 billion to $14 billion. Notable deals included $2.3 billion City of New York Taxable GO, $1.5 billion Hawaii Taxable GO, and $1.1 billion Austin TX Airport.

Bar chart showing annual total municipal bond issuance and net supply from 2010 through April 30, 2026.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The Bond Buyer, Barclays. As of April 30, 2026.

Demand: Persistent

April had positive inflows for three of the four weeks, with the only outflow week largely driven by tax time selling. On average, each week had $520 million worth of inflows based on weekly reporters’ data.

The last week of April marked the 21st week of positive inflows over the last 23 weeks. April saw strong demand for intermediate and long duration munis. Year-to-date fund inflows have totaled $33 billion, with the majority of flows into investment grade and long duration munis.

Bar chart showing monthly municipal fund flows spanning all muni, high yield, intermediate, and long-term categories, from April 2025 through April 30, 2026.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Refinitiv. As of April 30, 2026.

Spreads: Rangebound

Investment grade and high yield spreads remained rangebound in April, decreasing 2 bps to finish at 98 bps and down 1 bp to 188 bps, respectively.

The high yield muni index outperformed treasuries, investment grade corporates, investment grade munis, and high yield corporates by ~100 bps as of April. Education, special tax, and hospitals were top contributors to high yield positive performance in April, up 1.93%, 1.79%, and 1.74% respectively.

Line chart showing BBB versus AAA municipal index credit spreads and high yield versus investment grade municipal index spreads from April 2021 to April 30, 2026.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Bloomberg. As of April 30, 2026.

Author(s)
Avatar
Scott Diamond
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
Avatar
Sylvia Yeh
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
Avatar
David Alter
Head of Credit Research, Municipal Fixed Income
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