Fixed Income

Municipal Fixed Income Monthly

August 11, 2025 | 5 minute read
Author(s)
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Scott Diamond
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
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Sylvia Yeh
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
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David Alter
Head of Credit Research, Municipal Fixed Income

Steepening Deep Into The Summer Night

Market Overview: Three Themes

July was headlined by Tariffs, Fed Policy, and the passage of One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). We saw multiple tariff negotiations over the month as the July 9 deadline was extended to August 1. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate unchanged, inflation data came in somewhat below consensus, and jobs data showed no signs of weakening—all leading to an average increase of 16 basis points (bps) in Treasury yields. The muni market welcomed the OBBBA which maintained the muni tax exemption and extended the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). The high volume of summer muni reinvestment activity more than offset the higher supply which led to Municipal outperformance relative to Treasuries.

Yields & Valuations: Steepening Continues

The muni yield curve advanced its steepening trend in July as short and long-term yields diverged. The 5-year yield was down 20 bps while the 10-year and 30-year yields were up 6 bps and 16 bps respectively. The difference between 1-year and 30-year maturity munis steepened 37 bps to 227 bps at month-end. Muni/UST ratios decreased for the 5-year ratio and remained relatively flat for 10-year and 30-year ratios, finishing July at 63/74/94% respectively for 5/10/30 years. 

Municipal Yield CurveMunicipal Yield Curve

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of July 31, 2025.

ValuationsValuations

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of July 31, 2025.

Muni Index Performance: Negative Returns

The Bloomberg Muni Index decreased -0.20% in July, while the Bloomberg Muni High Yield Index decreased -1.51%. Steepening of the curve led to positive performance for shorter maturity bonds for both Investment Grade and High Yield indices, longer maturities in those indices saw negative performance. All credit ratings (AAA – BBB) within investment grade categories saw negative performance.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of July 31, 2025.

Credit Research Spotlight

OBBBA Impact on Hospitals: The recently enacted federal budget places additional pressure on the Hospital sector by adding work requirements for Medicaid eligibility and reducing provider tax caps. These provisions will be phased in over time, with the delayed implementation giving hospitals time to make changes and help mitigate the potential credit impact.

FY26 State Budgets: States budgets were finalized for FY26, highlighted by slowing revenue growth and tightening expenses. Despite revenue forecasts being revised down from initial projections, most budgets have growth of 0-5% for the year. Slower expense growth will help limit any significant spend downs in reserve funds.

Musings about Munis
Supply/Demand
Supply/Demand

We continue to expect elevated supply over the next few months, likely at a slower pace than seen at the beginning of the year. Given favorable summer technicals, we expect stronger demand as maturities get reinvested.

Valuations
Valuations

Long high grades are on the wider end of their recent average valuation range as compared to treasuries. Attractive absolute yields and generally stable credit fundamentals should support muni valuations across the curve over the summer. 

Credit and Spreads
Credit and Spreads

Boosted by healthy reserve balances, investment grade issuers remain on solid footing. This strong starting point may provide a needed cushion given a normalization in both revenues and federal aid.

Supply: Robust Issuance

July new issue supply amounted to $53 billion ($51 billion tax-exempt and $2 billion taxable). This was 30% higher than last year’s volumes and in-line with last month. YTD, new issue volumes are up 18% versus last year. The increase in supply has been driven by issuance for new projects and skewed to the long end of the yield curve.

Weekly new issuance volumes in July ranged from $4 billion to $15 billion. All weeks showed robust issuance, except the short holiday week. As July was coming to an end, the market was bracing for the first week of August to have one of the largest new issue weekly volumes in its history.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The Bond Buyer, Barclays. As of July 31, 2025

Demand: Steady Inflows

July witnessed positive weekly inflows, with the exception of one week. This continues the trend from June of positive weekly demand. On average, each week had $430 million of inflows based on weekly reporters’ data.

July saw fund outflows from long-term and high yield munis, with inflows into investment grade and intermediate duration munis. YTD fund inflows have totaled $21 billion, with most of those inflows having gone into ETFs.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Refinitiv. July 31, 2025

Spreads: Marginally Wider

BBB spreads widened, or increased, by 3bps and ended the month at 100 bps. High yield muni spreads moved wider as well, increasing by 8 bps to close at 193 bps.

Within high yield, the transportation sector materially underperformed, down –11% for July. Performance in that sector was driven by negative headlines from Brightline Trains Florida, leading to spread widening across the various related credits.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Bloomberg. July 31, 2025

Author(s)
Avatar
Scott Diamond
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
Avatar
Sylvia Yeh
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
Avatar
David Alter
Head of Credit Research, Municipal Fixed Income
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