Municipal Fixed Income Monthly
August Steepened Away
Market Overview: Fed in Focus
August saw many headlines around Fed Cuts and Jackson Hole. In addition to the payroll data released this month that showed 258k of cumulative payroll revisions between May and June, concerns over Fed independence, and a dovish speech delivered at the long-awaited Jackson Hole conference increased the probability of a September rate cut. Throughout the month this caused Treasury yields to rally by an average of 20 basis points (bps). The muni market was boosted by both the Treasury rally and heavy August redemptions which absorbed the tame monthly supply, pushing muni yields down by an average of 10 bps.
Yields & Valuations: Front-End Drop
The muni yield curve accelerated its steepening in August, driven by a drop in front-end rates. The difference between 1-year and 30-year maturity munis steepened 14 bps to 241 bps at month-end. Muni/UST ratios were generally flat for the month, finishing August at 64/75/93% respectively for 5/10/30 years.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of August 31, 2025.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of August 31, 2025.
Muni Index Performance: Positive Returns
The Bloomberg Muni Index returned +0.87% in August, while the Bloomberg Muni High Yield Index increased +0.53%. The decrease in rates at the front-end and belly of the curve and stable rates at the back-end has led to positive performance for both indices. All credit ratings (AAA – BBB) saw positive performance within investment grade munis.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of August 31, 2025.
Credit Research Spotlight
Although the speed of upgrades has slowed in 2025, August brought two high profile upgrades by S&P:
- State of New Jersey was upgraded one notch to A+ by S&P. The upgrade reflects the state’s improved balance sheet and more stable budget, helped by the state’s progress in paying down debt and funding pensions.
- Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) was upgraded one notch to A by S&P. The upgrade was based on multiple factors including the payroll mobility tax increase for MTA’s capital program, success of the congestion pricing program, ridership recovery, healthy liquidity and manageable projected out-year deficits.

We expect supply to slow down from its accelerated pace this year but remain on track for a record issuance year. Given less redemptions in the fall months, we expect demand to decrease however likely not materially.

Long high grades are on the wider end of their recent average valuation range as compared to Treasuries. We believe attractive absolute yields and generally stable credit fundamentals should support muni valuations across the curve.

Boosted by healthy reserve balances, investment grade issuers remain on solid footing. This strong starting point may provide a needed cushion given a normalization in both revenues and federal aid.
Supply: Decelerating Issuance
August new issue supply amounted to $51 billion ($48 billion tax-exempt and $3 billion taxable). This was 4% lower than August 2024 volumes and 12% lower than last month. YTD, new issue volumes are up 15% versus last year.
Weekly new issuance volumes in August ranged from $8 billion to $20 billion. The beginning of August had strong issuance, which slowly tapered over the course of the month. The issuance slowed down due to less uncertainty around the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The Bond Buyer, Barclays. As of August 31, 2025
Demand: Trending Towards Longer Maturities
August experienced strong weekly inflows for all but one week. This aligns with the strong inflow themes during the summer months. On average, each week had $1.1 billion of inflows based on weekly reporters’ data.
August saw inflows into long-term and investment grade munis, YTD fund inflows have totaled $25 billion, with most of those inflows to ETFs and Investment Grade munis.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Refinitiv. As of August 31, 2025
Spreads: Widening
Spreads widened in August. BBB spreads increased 7 bps to 107 bps. High yield muni spreads widened 6 bps to 199 bps at month end.
Within high yield, the transportation sector was the most notable as the highest performing sector, up +1.74%. This is a change from its significant July negative performance.
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