Portfolio Construction

Municipal Quarterly Review and Outlook 1Q2025

April 16, 2025 | 8 minute read
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Author(s)
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Scott Diamond
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
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Sylvia Yeh
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
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David Alter
Head of Credit Research, Municipal Fixed Income

Promising Start Derailed by March’s Madness

Municipal bonds began 2025 on a strong note, with declining Treasury yields and consistent investor inflows driving robust demand that effectively absorbed the substantial volume of new bond issues. However, this positive trend reversed sharply in March. A combination of negative factors—outflows, high new issuance, positive net supply, tax-related selling, and increased news regarding the tax exemption—created a challenging market environment for municipal bonds.

January and February had positive returns; however, March delivered the muni market’s worst monthly return in almost 18 months. For the quarter, the Bloomberg Muni Bond Index returned -0.22%. The Bloomberg Municipal High Yield and Taxable Indices returned 0.82% and 2.99%, respectively, for Q1’25.

The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.80% in mid-January and then generally fell due to lower inflation expectations, tariff concerns, mixed labor market data, and weaker consumer confidence — munis followed suit.

Munis largely underperformed Treasuries as benchmark muni yields fell in short-term maturities but moved higher in longer-term ones. The yield-to-worst on the Bloomberg 3yr Index ended the quarter 12bps lower at 3.06%. The Bloomberg 1-10 Index closed at 3.34%, 2bps lower, and the Bloomberg Muni Agg Index rose 11bps, reaching 3.85%.

During the past quarter, concerns about credit fundamentals took a backseat to municipal technicals and broader rate volatility. With credit spreads largely unchanged, and market volatility increasing – there is no reason to believe this changes during the near term.
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Ed Paulinski
Portfolio Manager, Head of Municipal Separately Managed Accounts
1Q Notable Mentions and Market Movers
January
January
  • Wildfires cause widespread damage in Los Angeles
  • Non-Farm payrolls much higher-than-expected
  • CPI readings below consensus
  • The FOMC left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged
February
February
  • CPI readings above consensus
  • Non-farm payrolls below expectations, earlier months revised higher
  • FOMC minutes note ‘careful’ approach amid high uncertainty
March
March
  • Tariffs on foreign goods moves forward
  • Core CPI comes in below expectations
  • FOMC holds rates steady, but increases inflation expectations while decreasing growth projections
  • Tax season takes hold in muni market

Municipal Market Outlook

Supply/Demand

We expect primary market supply to maintain its record pace from last year as the need for costly infrastructure spending continues across most municipal sectors. At current yield levels, refinancing activity of previously issued debt also has the potential to rise. Issuer concerns about losing their ability to borrow in the tax-exempt markets may cause front-loading of issuance before tax legislation is passed. Given our constructive and income-focused view on muni returns in 2025, we believe aggregate demand for municipals will be positive. If yields stay elevated, we believe all investment vehicles will benefit as investors look to take advantage of the tax-free income available.

Valuations

Short and Intermediate valuations are currently fair to attractive based on recent history. With this past quarter’s underperformance, the longest maturities seem most attractive from a curve perspective. Strong demand, improved levels of re-investment capital, and normalized credit fundamentals should lead municipals to outperform in the near-term. However, tax policy uncertainty may put a ceiling on the outperformance potential.

Credit/Spreads

We are currently experiencing a typical municipal credit cycle characterized by reduced federal support and increased budgetary pressure, which may result in negative headlines. Despite these challenges, investment-grade municipal issuers remain stable due to healthy reserve balances. We are diligently observing the effects of federal policy and potential tariffs on specific issuers as well as entire sectors. Given the diverse high yield municipal opportunity set, careful credit selectivity will be crucial for portfolio outperformance.

Download the full Municipal Market Review and Outlook for a deeper dive from our team. 

Author(s)
Avatar
Scott Diamond
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
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Sylvia Yeh
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
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David Alter
Head of Credit Research, Municipal Fixed Income
Municipal Quarterly Review and Outlook 1Q2025
Read more about what we have seen over the last quarter and what we are watching.
municipal quarterly review and outlook 1q2025
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