Municipal Quarterly Review 1Q 2026
Municipal Quarterly Review 1Q 2026
Municipal Quarterly Review 1Q 2026
Frenetic Quarter Creates Better Entry Point for Munis
Market Overview:
Municipal bond (muni) yields sold off during the first quarter of 2026, tracking US Treasury yields higher amid geopolitical volatility and reignited inflation fears. The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% during its January and March meetings, as it awaited further evidence of cooling prices. The market navigated a mixed technical backdrop: elevated new issue supply—with $50 billion in March—met by resilient demand and persistent fund inflows. While munis delivered strong relative performance through February, gains were erased in March. Munis underperformed Treasuries across the curve in March as heavy supply and renewed inflation concerns pressured valuations.
Valuations:
Muni yields rose 47 basis points (bps) on average across the curve for March versus 39 bps on average for US Treasury yields. For Q1, muni yields were higher by 21 bps versus 19 bps for US Treasury yields on average. Muni/UST ratios cheapened by 5 ratios on average across the curve in March. For Q1, ratios richened by an average of 4 ratios across the one- to five-year part of the curve and cheapened an average of 6 ratios across 10- to 30-year notes, ending Q1 at 65%/71%/90% respectively for 5/10/30 years.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of March 31, 2026.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of March 31, 2026.
Index Performance:
The Bloomberg Municipal Aggregate Index returned -2.32% in March—its third lowest March return since inception in 1980—and -0.18% for Q1. The Bloomberg Muni High Yield Index returned -1.90% and +0.71% over the same periods, respectively.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of March 31, 2026.
Credit Research Spotlight: New York City and Prepaid Gas
Moody’s and Fitch Ratings revised New York City’s rating outlook to negative, citing widening budget gaps and a growing mismatch between expenditures and revenues. Both agencies did however affirm the city’s long-term credit rating at Aa2/AA.
Despite these pressures, we view the city’s credit profile as resilient, supported by a long record of fiscal discipline and strong revenue performance that continues to outperform the budget.
Read our latest credit insight Prepaid Gas Bonds: Unlocking Yield in a Growing Municipal Sector.
Muni Musings:
Second quarter supply should remain elevated given continued infrastructure needs. We expect demand to persist for the asset class given attractive tax equivalent yields and strong fundamentals.
Relative value to treasuries and the yield curve’s current steepness provide a potential compelling entry point for investors. While credit spreads are currently in fair territory, rigorous selection will play a key role in helping drive returns.
While we expect an increase in headline driven volatility, the combination of a strong underlying economy and healthy reserve balances puts municipalities in a strong position to navigate the path forward.
Supply: Robust
March new issue supply amounted to $50 billion ($48 billion tax-exempt and $2 billion taxable). This was an increase of 18% from February, and 17% higher versus March 2025. Weekly new issuance volumes in March ranged from $10 billion to $16 billion.
For the first quarter, municipal issuance totaled $127 billion ($121 billion tax-exempt and $6 billion taxable). This was 9% below the previous quarter, but 6% higher than the first quarter of 2025.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The Bond Buyer, Barclays. As of March 31, 2026
Demand: Positive
Municipals saw strong inflows through March, with an average of $810 million each week. Munis saw its first outflow week at the end of the month, breaking its 18-week streak of positive inflows. There were strong investment grade muni inflows, while high yield saw outflows over the month. Inflows were trending towards intermediate-term and long-term munis.
Muni fund flows totaled $3.8 billion for March. First quarter fund flows totaled $26 billion ($15 billion mutual funds and $11 billion ETFs). Investment grade quality munis saw strong flows at the intermediate and long-end of the curve.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Refinitiv. As of March 31, 2026
Spreads: Tighter
BBB spreads and high yield muni spreads both tightened 9 bps and 20 bps, respectively, ending March at 100 bps and 189 bps. For the first quarter, BBB and high yield spreads tightened by 5 bps and 10 bps, respectively.
Education and Airlines were the only negative performing sectors in the first quarter, at -0.69% and –0.07% respectively, while all high yield maturities had positive returns. For March within high yield, the 1-year maturity and electric sector were the lone positive performers at +0.16% and +0.25%, respectively.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Bloomberg. As of March 31, 2026
