(New York, March 25, 2026) – Geopolitical tensions and a slowdown or recession in the US were each cited by a majority of insurers as the primary macroeconomic risk to their investment portfolios, according to Adaptation in Action, Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s 15^th annual global insurance survey.  Amid these concerns, 88% of insurers expect the S&P 500 Index to climb higher in 2026, and 62% plan to increase their allocation to private assets this year, consistent with the last several years.

“This year’s Goldman Sachs Asset Management Insurance Survey results underscore a sustained focus on AI and private markets as insurers seek durable sources of return, income, and diversification,” said Mike Siegel, Global Head of Insurance Asset Management and Liquidity Solutions, Co-Head of the Client Solutions Group in Asia Pacific.

More specifically, asset-backed finance is appealing to insurers, with a net 38% planning to increase allocations in their General Account portfolios to the asset class over the next 12 months.  Other attractive asset classes in their view include:

• Investment-grade private placements - a net 35% of insurers expect to increase allocations
• Senior direct lending - a net 33% of insurers plan to increase allocations
• Private equity - a net 25% of insurers intend to increase allocations
• Infrastructure equity – a net 25% of insurers expect to increase allocations

“Over the 15 years we have conducted this survey, private credit has continued to evolve into a broad and deep asset class and a core holding for insurers looking to address their yield and duration matching needs. They are sophisticated investors that are able to invest and be opportunistic in credit cycles. We believe they represent patient capital and are well positioned to be a lender of choice to high quality borrowers in more volatile markets,” continued Mr. Siegel.

Recession, Geopolitical Concerns Top Inflation

Asked to rank the issues that pose the greatest macroeconomic risk to their investment portfolios, insurers cited:

• Economic slowdown / Recession in the US (52%)
• Geopolitical Tensions (52%)
• Credit & equity market valuations (46%)
• Inflation (42%)
• Credit & equity market volatility (30%) 

Notably, 55% of insurers globally predict the US will enter a recession within the next three years, up from 46% one year ago. However, insurers remain optimistic about the S&P 500 Index this year, with 55% expecting a total return between 5% and less than 10%, and 18% forecasting a return between 10% and less than 20%.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research expects the S&P 500 Index will deliver a total return of 12% in 2026, as double-digit EPS growth, continued economic resilience, and further monetary easing create favorable conditions for US equities (Source: GIR US Equity Views, March 13, 2026).

Globally, most insurers (79%) expect modest declines in the Fed Funds rate to 3-3.5% range and 81% expect the 10-year Treasury to be rangebound between 3.5-4.5% by year-end.  

“The investment environment has quickly become more nuanced and complex. Fluctuating macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical shifts, and rapid technological advancements are creating a landscape where disciplined asset selection across both private and public markets matters more than ever,” said Jared Klyman, Global Head of the Insurance Asset Management business at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

The asset classes insurers expect to deliver the highest total returns in the next 12 months include:

• Private equity (18%)
• U.S. equities (17%)
• Commodities (13%)
• Emerging markets equities (12%)
• Private equity secondaries (8%)

 

Artificial Intelligence Adoption Accelerates

Most insurers are either currently using (62%) or considering the use (34%) of Artificial Intelligence (AI). The most common AI applications cited are reducing operational costs (83%), evaluating investments (42%), insurance risk underwriting (38%), and marketing/client acquisition (33%). 

Globally, a majority of insurers (56%) believe that the greatest returns from artificial intelligence investment opportunities can be found in infrastructure/data centers.

“We believe AI and the next generation of digital infrastructure is presenting one of the broadest and most significant investment opportunities of our lifetimes. With the major compute power and development of critical supply chains, components, and services required to meet demand growth, we see a wave of unprecedented opportunity for investors to capture value across all elements of the AI ecosystem,” said Leonard Seevers, Partner, Digital Infrastructure Investing.

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Methodology

The 15th annual Goldman Sachs Asset Management Global Insurance Survey offers valuable perspectives from senior investment professionals, including Chief Investment Officers (CIOs) and Chief Financial Officers (CFOs). The survey explores topics including the current macroeconomic environment, asset allocation, expected returns, portfolio construction, and industry capitalization.

The respondents collectively represent insurance companies that manage roughly half of total balance sheet assets for the global insurance industryThe firms surveyed encompass the full breadth of the insurance sector, differing in size, geographic region, and lines of business.

Responses were collected from 434 participants from January 11 to February 3, 2026. 

The S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor's 500 Composite Stock Prices Index of 500 stocks, an unmanaged index of common stock prices. The index figures do not reflect any deduction for fees, expenses, or taxes. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index.  Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary.

About Goldman Sachs Asset Management Insurance

Goldman Sachs Asset Management manages $651 billion in general account assets on behalf of insurance clients as of December 31, 2025. The firm’s insurance capabilities include partial to full outsourcing solutions involving fixed-income strategies, alternative investments, and equities. The group offers a suite of advisory services including asset liability management, strategic asset allocation, capital-efficient investment strategies, and risk management.

About Goldman Sachs Asset Management: 

Goldman Sachs Asset Management is the primary investing area within Goldman Sachs, delivering investment and advisory services across public and private markets for the world’s leading institutions, financial advisors, and individuals. The business is driven by a focus on partnership and shared success with its clients, seeking to deliver long-term investment performance drawing on its global network and deep expertise across industries and markets. Goldman Sachs Asset Management is a leading investor across fixed income, liquidity, equity, alternatives, and multi-asset solutions. Goldman Sachs oversees approximately $3.6 trillion in assets under supervision as of December 31, 2025. Follow us on LinkedIn.