Fixed Income

Municipal Fixed Income Monthly

March 11, 2026 | 5 minute read
Author(s)
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Scott Diamond
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
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Sylvia Yeh
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
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David Alter
Head of Credit Research, Municipal Fixed Income

Munis Continue Another Month of Positive Returns

Active management of muni portfolios could become increasingly important for income-seeking investors in 2026. Munis continue to demonstrate robust fundamental strength and persistent demand from investors, which we believe will support the asset class. However, we are cognizant that geopolitical concerns, tariff uncertainty and the potential impact of AI could pose headwinds. In this environment, dynamic portfolio management can help capitalize on market inefficiencies, both on security selection and in curve positioning, to make the most of the income and diversification properties that the muni asset class provides.

Market Overview: Geopolitics, AI Volatility, Tariffs

Both the municipal bond (muni) market and Treasury market saw positive February returns, with Treasuries outperforming munis. Munis continued the themes of high supply and strong front-end demand, pushing yields lower and steepening the curve. Treasury yields also moved lower in February as investors positioned for a growth scare driven by AI-related disruption risks, tariffs, and geopolitical news in the Middle East, causing the treasury curve to flatten.

Yields & Valuations: Big Fall in Yields

Yields across the muni curve fell an average of 15 basis points (bps) in February. The difference between 1-year and 30-year muni yields widened 10 bps to 203 bps. Muni/US Treasury ratios rose slightly by 1/1/2%, finishing February at 59/63/88% respectively for 5/10/30 years.

Municipal Yield CurveMunicipal Yield Curve

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg.  As of February 28, 2026.

ValuationsValuations

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of February 28, 2026.

Muni Index Performance: Positive Returns All Around

The Bloomberg Muni Index returned 1.25% in February, while the Bloomberg Muni High Yield Index increased by 1.67%. All credit ratings (AAA–BBB) saw positive performance within investment grade munis.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of February 28, 2026.

Credit Research Spotlight

We are starting to see preliminary budgets for fiscal year 2027, including proposals for California, Illinois, and New York City.

Although some of the higher profile state and city budgets show modest deficits, we view these as manageable and not indicative of material credit risk. Both California and Illinois forecast revenue growth moderating to 1-2%. Both states’ proposals have constrained expenditure growth that helps limit overall deficits.

For the majority of states, we do not expect meaningful budget gaps.

Muni Musings
Supply/Demand
Supply/Demand

New issue supply remains heavy, with expectations for the pace of supply to continue given infrastructure needs. We expect demand to persist for the asset class given attractive tax equivalent yields and strong fundamentals.

Valuations
Valuations

Front-end muni valuations remain stretched, while the current steepness of the muni curve offers additional yield for investors looking to extend duration. Seasonal increase in new issuance and tax time selling could provide some front-end relief.

Credit and Spreads
Credit and Spreads

Credit selectivity remains a critical driver of outperformance with spreads near their five-year average. We believe the strong economy and healthy reserve balances have credit well positioned to withstand idiosyncratic events.

Supply: Solid Issuance

February new issue supply amounted to $40 billion ($39 billion tax-exempt and $1 billion taxable). This was 1% lower than February 2025 volumes, but 15% higher than last month. Year to date, new issue volumes are down 3% versus last year.

Weekly new issuance volumes in February ranged from $8 billion to $14 billion. Notable deals included $2 billion University of California, $1.2 billion Harris County Cultural Education Facilities, and $1.1 billion Black Belt Energy Gas District.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The Bond Buyer, Barclays. As of February 28, 2026.

Demand: Robust Flows

February had positive inflows for all four weeks. On average, each week had $1.5 billion worth of inflows based on weekly reporters’ data.

February continued the theme of strong demand for investment grade and long duration munis. Year-to-date fund inflows have totaled $18 billion, with the majority of inflows into investment grade and long duration munis.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Refinitiv. As of February 28, 2026.

Spreads: Uneventful

Investment grade spreads were flat in February, finishing at 109 bps, while high yield spreads widened slightly, increasing 2 bps to 209 bps.

Within high yield, all sectors showed positive performance. Housing and hospital sectors were the largest gainers, up 2.12% and 1.91% respectively.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Bloomberg. As of February 28, 2026.

Author(s)
Avatar
Scott Diamond
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
Avatar
Sylvia Yeh
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
Avatar
David Alter
Head of Credit Research, Municipal Fixed Income
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