Fixed Income

Municipal Fixed Income Monthly

November 12, 2025 | 5 minute read
Author(s)
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Scott Diamond
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
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Sylvia Yeh
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
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David Alter
Head of Credit Research, Municipal Fixed Income

October’s Harvest: The Long-End’s Fall

Market Overview: Shutdown, CPI, Fed Cut

The government shutdown that began on October 1st delayed many economic releases; however, an exception was made for September CPI data which came in at 3.02% year-over-year. The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75-4.00%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments saying a December rate cut is “not a foregone conclusion” reversed much of October’s Treasury rally, though yields still finished the month down an average of 3 bps. In the muni market, heavy supply weighed on the front-end as investors looked to extend duration, pushing 2-year yields up 22 bps while 10- and 30-year yields fell 18 bps.

Yields & Valuations: Flattened

The muni yield curve bear flattened at the front end and bull flattened at the long end, driven by the Fed easing cycle and extending duration narrative. The difference between 1-year and 30-year munis tightened 42 bps to 154 bps. Muni/UST ratios cheapened at the front end and richened at the long end, finishing October at 64/67/87% respectively for 5/10/30 years.

Municipal Yield CurveMunicipal Yield Curve

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of October 31, 2025.

ValuationsValuations

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of October 31, 2025.

Muni Index Performance: Positive Returns

The Bloomberg Muni Index returned 1.24% in October, the best October return since 1995, while the Bloomberg Muni High Yield Index increased +1.00%. The decrease in rates at the long end of the curve has led to positive performance for both indices. All credit ratings (AAA–BBB) saw positive performance within investment grade munis.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of October 31, 2025.

Credit Research Spotlight

Credit trends continue to be strong:

  • State of Illinois was upgraded by Moody’s to A2 following other key recent upgrades for New Jersey, Connecticut and the NY MTA. Illinois upgrade reflected improved financial performance and liquidity position. In aggregate state ratings are at peak levels reflecting broad economic strength and continued robust reserves.
  • The Federal shutdown has not yet impacted municipal credit and local government finances. Importantly, some governors had already implemented plans to provide temporary funding to some impacted programs. Strong state balance sheets will help fill gaps where federal funding may be lacking in the shutdown.
Muni Musings
Supply/Demand
Supply/Demand

We believe supply will decrease but it still remains on track for a record issuance year. Even with historically lower fall redemptions, demand will be consistent in our view as investors seek to extend duration as the Fed enters an easing cycle.

Valuations
Valuations

Intermediate and longer-dated munis present a strong entry point given the attractive tax-equivalent yields in these parts of the curve. Favorable absolute yields and stable credit fundamentals should support muni valuations across the curve.

Credit and Spreads
Credit and Spreads

Investment grade issuers remain on solid footing, boosted by healthy reserve balances. We view current credit spreads to be additive to portfolios and are focused on active credit selection to take advantage of our opportunity set.

Supply: Strong Issuance

October new issue supply amounted to $55 billion ($52 billion tax-exempt and $3 billion taxable). This was 15% lower than October 2024 volumes, but 17% higher than last month. Year to date, new issue volumes are up 9% versus last year.

Weekly new issuance volumes in October ranged from $8 billion to $18 billion. There were some notable deals that exceeded $1 billion for the month, more notably two Texas transportation deals and three New York City deals.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The Bond Buyer, Barclays. As of October 31, 2025

Demand: Robust in Longer Dated Maturities

October experienced strong positive weekly inflows throughout the month. On average, each week had $872 million of inflows based on weekly reporters’ data.

October saw inflows trending into investment grade of $5 billion and long-term munis of $4 billion. YTD fund inflows have totaled $42 billion, with most of those inflows to ETFs and investment grade munis.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Refinitiv. As of October 31, 2025

Spreads: Rangebound

Investment grade spreads tightened while high yield spreads widened in October. BBB spreads decreased 1 bps to 105 bps. High yield muni spreads widened 4 bps to 206 bps at month end.

Within high yield, housing and special tax were the highest performing sectors, up +1.62% and +1.58% respectively.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Bloomberg. October 31, 2025

Author(s)
Avatar
Scott Diamond
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
Avatar
Sylvia Yeh
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
Avatar
David Alter
Head of Credit Research, Municipal Fixed Income
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