Municipals

Municipal Market Review 3Q 2026

October 12, 2026 | 5 minute read
municipal-quarterly_1q-2026_21-9_1840x788.jpg
Author(s)
Avatar
Scott Diamond
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
Avatar
Sylvia Yeh
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income and Global Head of Client Portfolio Management, Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions
Avatar
David Alter
Head of Credit Research, Municipal Fixed Income

Key Takeaways

1

Municipal bonds sold off sharply, completely reversing the previous quarter's rally and leading to historically weak index performance across both investment-grade and high-yield sectors.

2

Upward pressure on yields was driven by rising Treasury yields following the Fed’s hawkish pivot, ongoing inflation concerns, and heightened geopolitical tensions.

3

Municipal bonds faced underperformance due to weak technical indicators, including slower seasonal reinvestment and heavy tax-loss selling during a period of robust market supply.

4

Yields rose across the curve, causing municipal-to-Treasury ratios to cheapen significantly and improving relative value indicators.

Difficult Technicals Lead to Negative Quarter

Market Overview: How did munis perform in 3Q? 

Municipal bonds (munis) sold off sharply during the third quarter of 2026, reversing the second quarter rally and marking its worst monthly performance since 2008. US Treasury yields also rose as the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its policy rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 3.75 - 4.00% amid elevated inflation, the first hike since July 2023. Interest rate volatility persisted over the quarter, largely driven by geopolitical re-escalation in the Middle East and hawkish Fed policy expectations. Challenging muni technicals drove underperformance over the quarter; beyond the selloff in US Treasuries, slower seasonal reinvestment and heavy tax loss-related selling during a period of robust supply pushed muni yields to multi-decade highs.

Valuations: How did munis perform compared with US Treasuries in 3Q? 

Muni yields rose 80 bp on average across the curve during September, compared with Treasury yields rising 50 bp on average. For the quarter, muni yields rose by an average of 120 bp, while Treasury yields rose 75 bp. Muni/Treasury ratios cheapened by 9% on average across the curve in September. For 3Q, ratios moved higher by an average of 13% across the curve, ending 3Q at 73%/78%/92% respectively for 5/10/30 years.

Municipal Yield Curve Line chart showing municipal bond yields to worst across maturities from 1 to 30 years, comparing September 2026 versus August 2026.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg.  As of September 30, 2026.

ValuationsTable showing AAA municipal yields, US Treasury yields, quarterly yield changes, and muni-to-Treasury ratios across 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year maturities as of September 30, 2026.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of September 30, 2026.

Index Performance: How did the investment grade and high yield portions of the market fare? 

The Bloomberg Municipal Aggregate Index returned -4.36% in September and -6.35% for 3Q, marking its weakest 3Q performance since 1981. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Muni High Yield Index also fell by -4.31% in September, and -5.55% for the quarter.

Bar chart showing monthly and year-to-date total returns for key municipal bond indices as of September 30, 2026.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Bloomberg. As of September 30, 2026.

Credit Research Spotlight: Tax Collections and Data Centers

State and Local Tax Collections: State and local tax collections continue to deliver strong results, with total tax revenues rising 6% for Q2 2026 compared with Q2 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This outpaces the 2.5% median state tax revenue growth projected by the National Association of State Budget Officers. 

Data Centers and Munis: Data centers have emerged as a bipartisan election issue, with some jurisdictions imposing development moratoriums while others pursue expansion.

Read our latest insight on munis and data centers.

Muni Musings: Should investors capitalize on attractive yields in Q4?

Supply/Demand
Supply/Demand

We believe that fourth-quarter supply should remain high given continued infrastructure needs, but refinancing activity will be market dependent given the recent rate move. We expect demand to soften with year-end tax loss harvesting; however, attractive yields provide a compelling entry point.

Valuations and Spreads
Valuations and Spreads

In our view, Muni/US Treasury ratios are at fair value and credit spreads are below their five-year historical averages. With absolute yields at multi-decade highs, it presents a potentially attractive entry point for investors. 

Credit Outlook
Credit Outlook

We anticipate headline-driven volatility to remain present, but we believe that healthy reserve balances and a resilient underlying economy continue to put municipalities in a strong position to navigate any headwinds.

Strong September supply

September new issue supply amounted to $55 billion ($52 billion tax-exempt and $3 billion taxable). This represented a 10% decline versus August but was 15% higher versus September 2025. Weekly new issuance volumes in September ranged from $10 billion to $16 billion.

For the third quarter, municipal issuance totaled $163 billion ($157 billion tax-exempt and $6 billion taxable). This was 2% lower than the previous quarter and 5% higher than the third quarter of 2025.

Bar chart showing annual total municipal bond issuance and net supply from 2010 through September 30, 2026.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The Bond Buyer, Barclays. As of September 30, 2026

Demand: Positive inflows

Munis saw volatile flows in September, experiencing the largest weekly outflow since April 2025 of $1.8 billion. September saw a rotation out of mutual funds into ETFs due to tax loss selling and inflows continued toward investment grade and long-term munis.

Muni fund flows totaled $5.2 billion for September. Year-to-date flows totaled $74 billion ($28 billion mutual funds and $46 billion ETFs), the second-fastest pace for the first half of a year. Investment grade quality munis saw strong flows at the intermediate and long-end of the curve.

Bar chart showing weekly municipal fund flows spanning all muni, high yield, intermediate, and long-term categories, from September 2025 through September 30, 2026.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Refinitiv. As of September 30, 2026

Spreads: Tightening in 3Q

Spreads in BBB and high yield munis tightened 9 bp and 27 bp, respectively, in September, ending the month at 76 bp and 143 bp. For the third quarter, BBB and high yield spreads tightened 17 bp and 40 bp, respectively.

In the third quarter, transportation and education lagged most, returning -8.79% and 7.75% respectively, as all high yield cohorts posted negative returns that worsened with longer durations. In high yield for September, long maturities and transportation were the worst performers, falling 5.30% and 8.24% respectively.

Line chart showing BBB versus AAA municipal index credit spreads and high yield versus investment grade municipal index spreads from September 2021 to September 30, 2026.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Bloomberg. As of September 30, 2026

Author(s)
Avatar
Scott Diamond
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income
Avatar
Sylvia Yeh
Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income and Global Head of Client Portfolio Management, Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions
Avatar
David Alter
Head of Credit Research, Municipal Fixed Income
Municipal Market Review 3Q 2026
Explore our latest insights what happened over the last quarter in the fixed income municipal market.
municipal market review 3q 2026
Start the Conversation
Contact Goldman Sachs Asset Management for a detailed discussion of your needs.
card-poster