Macroeconomics

Weekly Market Monitor

October 30, 2026 | 3 minute read
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Stay connected with our Weekly Market Monitor, featuring a thematic chart, key market developments, and valuable investment insights across asset classes each week.

Chart of the Week: Against Timing the Top

We expect S&P 500 EPS growth to decelerate from 36% in 2026 to 11% in both 2027 and 2028 as the impact from AI capex on earnings moderates. Looking across previous bull markets, US equities have still risen substantially after earnings growth peaked. Roughly 40-60% of the total return has come after peak earnings growth unless external forces cut the cycle short, such as trade tensions in 2018 and aggressive rate hikes in 2022. Investors risk missing out on significant upside by trying to time the top. Instead, we recommend staying invested while mitigating risks through diversification.

Source: Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of October 23, 2026. Chart shows the total returns before and after peak S&P 500 earnings growth during 5 historical bull markets. The economic and market forecasts presented herein have been generated by Goldman Sachs Asset Management for informational purposes as of the date of this presentation. They are based on proprietary models and there can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Diversification does not protect an investor from market risk and does not ensure a profit. The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but does not imply low risk. Past performance does not predict future returns and does not guarantee future results, which may vary. ‘We’ refers to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. For Illustrative Purposes Only. Please see additional disclosures at the end of this presentation.

Download the full document, which includes the chart of the week and insights on market developments. On pages 3 and 4, we further recap equity sector, size and style returns, global index returns, as well as rates and spread movements and a monthly snapshot of global equity valuations.

Weekly Market Monitor
The Market Monitor features a thematic chart and highlights key economic events and data releases driving the past week’s market moves.
weekly market monitor